Finance & Insurance

Companies get worse at truly innovating the more financial analysts cover them

Perhaps Microsoft should keep ValueAct at arm’s length.

Finance & Insurance

7 in 10 Singaporeans snub buying homes in 2014

7 in 10 Singaporeans snub buying homes next year
Staff Reporter | Singapore Business Review | Singapore Business Review – Thu Aug 22 01:30:00 UTC 2013
Is it the best tactic today?

According to a survey by iProperty Group, 74% of respondents do not …

7 in 10 Singaporeans snub buying homes next year.

Supply & Demand alone may stagnate property prices next year. Central Banks around the world are also talking about raising interest rates and/or reducing stimulus to the economy. Will these factors precipitate property prices?

Finance & Insurance

“Crises are predictable”: Didier Sornette at TEDGlobal 2013

The key is recognising the warning signs…

TED Blog

Risk economist Didier Sornette makes bold claims on Wednesday morning at TEDGlobal 2013, during the session “Money Talks.” According to Sornette, we have been operating under a few detrimental illusions that have landed us in our current economic state: One, we have been living in an age of never-ending growth and prosperity. Well, $30 trillion losses in the global market from the Great Recession have already shattered this illusion. And two, that we couldn’t see this crash coming.

The 2007-2008 crash seemed to come out of nowhere, with no source or group to take responsibility, an unpredictable one-time anomaly — as Sornette calls it: “the wrath of God.” But as he says firmly: Despite what standard risk management tools show, these outliers operate under special mechanisms that make them predictable, perhaps even controllable. Sornette and his team at the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) call these special cases “dragon-kings.” Dragon-kings…

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Finance & Insurance

Turbulent times ahead: Q&A with economist Didier Sornette

TED Blog

Forecasting the stock market has a storied past of unfruitful predictions. But in today’s TED Talk, Didier Sornette shares how he and his research team have successfully identified unstable market bubbles and even predicted when they’ll pop. His findings, if accepted, could quite literally change the way we do business, by shifting how banks, traders and governments respond to apparent growth in individual markets.

In the talk, he hints at some of his most recent analysis: On May 17, 2013, he says, “we identified that the US stock market was on an unsustainable path, and we released on our website … that on the 21st of May, that there will be a change of course. And the next day, the market started to change course.”

We talked to him about this, and he was willing to go into more detail, starting with the graph below. On the left axis (in…

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